Is Europe in Control of Its Own Future?

With growing speculation that the U.S. may scale back support for Ukraine and engage directly with Russia, a key question arises: Does Europe have the ability to influence this outcome? The reality is that Europe, as a collective entity, has limited options. In the grand geopolitical landscape, Ukraine is on the menu, while the U.S. and Russia are seated at the negotiating table. Europe, however, is neither a guest nor a dish being served—at least, not yet.

Europe’s Defense Dependence on the U.S.

For decades, European nations have relied on the U.S. for military security, maintaining relatively low defense spending. This dependency is a cornerstone of the U.S.-led unipolar order, often referred to as Pax Americana. Countries across the continent, as well as Canada, have long assumed that U.S. military support was an unconditional guarantee.

The Trade-Off: Economic Growth Over Military Strength

By outsourcing defense to the U.S., Europe has been able to focus on economic and social development. Governments have directed resources toward industrial growth, agriculture, and welfare programs funded by high taxes. However, this arrangement has come at a cost: Europe has little independent military leverage and often aligns with U.S. strategic decisions.

But today, this post-war arrangement is under strain. The U.S. faces increasing political resistance at home against maintaining the current global security structure. While powerful interest groups, including defense contractors and multinational corporations, continue to benefit, the average American voter sees little return. This discontent is amplified by economic grievances, such as European nations maintaining strong manufacturing industries while imposing trade barriers that disadvantage U.S. exports.

Diverging Economic Models and a Fractured Alliance

The weakening of the U.S.-led order is also driven by structural economic differences. The American model prioritizes low taxes, corporate growth, and a free-market approach, whereas Europe leans toward high-tax, high-welfare policies. When the distribution of benefits becomes unbalanced, tensions emerge within the alliance. External events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, further accelerate these fractures.

While global shifts play a role, some of the current instability can be traced back to past U.S. foreign policy choices. The 2003 Iraq War, for instance, disrupted the Middle East, contributed to the rise of extremist groups, and triggered mass displacement. As a result, Europe bore the burden of millions of refugees, fueling political and social tensions. The rise of nationalist movements across Europe today is, in part, a response to these demographic and economic pressures.

Many of these geopolitical trends are linked to long-standing historical factors. The U.S.’s unconditional support for Israel, for example, has shaped its relationships in the Middle East, contributing to conflicts that have had far-reaching consequences. These historical patterns highlight how past decisions continue to shape present challenges.

Russia’s Strategic Calculations

When Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine in 2022, it did so with an awareness of the internal divisions within the U.S. and Europe. Russian leaders have long observed the ideological divides in Western nations—ranging from nationalist movements to left-wing skepticism of American global influence. While Russia may have correctly predicted the long-term decline of unipolar U.S. dominance, it underestimated Ukraine’s military resistance. As a result, the conflict has turned into a prolonged struggle, with Russia waiting for larger geopolitical shifts—such as potential leadership changes in the U.S.—to shift the balance in its favor.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has accelerated shifts in global geopolitical structures, particularly in the transatlantic alliance. This conflict has highlighted long-standing differences between the U.S. and Europe, especially in defense spending. Trump has repeatedly called for NATO members to increase their military budgets, suggesting a target of 5% of GDP—far above the current 2% guideline. However, many European nations struggle to meet even the 2% target, with some of the strongest economies, such as Spain, allocating as little as 1.28% of GDP to defense. Given Europe’s current economic and fiscal challenges, significantly increasing military spending seems unlikely without increasing debt and deficits.

Europe’s Political Structure and Its Influence on Global Influence

Europe’s modern political system is characterized by decentralization. Most European nations have opted for smaller, more focused governance structures to enhance democratic efficiency and accountability. While this has strengthened domestic governance, it has also led to a fragmented geopolitical presence. As a result, individual European nations often lack the geopolitical weight to act independently, leading to reliance on larger allies such as the U.S.

To counterbalance this fragmentation, European nations have pursued greater integration through institutions like the European Union and the eurozone. However, deeper integration comes with challenges, including bureaucratic costs, regulatory complexities, and sovereignty trade-offs. For instance, issues such as immigration policies and economic regulations have sparked internal disagreements, contributing to events like Brexit.

Economic stability is often a prerequisite for political strength. The EU has strict fiscal policies, such as limiting national debt to 60% of GDP and budget deficits to 3% of GDP. Countries like Germany have embedded fiscal discipline, such as a constitutional “debt brake,” further restricting budget flexibility. Under these financial constraints, significantly increasing military expenditure remains a difficult proposition for most European nations.

Additionally, historical perspectives play a role. Many Europeans remain skeptical about the likelihood of direct Russian military aggression beyond Ukraine, which reduces the urgency for higher defense spending. The economic and political conditions in Europe make large-scale military expansion a challenging endeavor.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe are another key issue. Trump has criticized Europe’s value-added tax (VAT) system, arguing that it creates an unfair trade advantage. VAT accounts for 20-30% of many European nations’ fiscal revenue and is a fundamental pillar of their economic model. Any major changes to VAT policies would require structural shifts in Europe’s taxation and welfare systems, which seems highly unlikely. These debates highlight deeper differences between the U.S. and Europe, where the former follows a lower-tax, lower-welfare model while the latter relies on higher taxation to support social services.

Europe’s post-war economic model has been heavily dependent on U.S. defense support, allowing nations to prioritize social welfare. However, as geopolitical and economic pressures mount—including energy security concerns, the rise of China’s manufacturing sector, and technological shifts such as AI—Europe must reassess its economic strategy. Countries like Germany, traditionally reliant on industrial exports, face significant challenges in maintaining competitiveness.

The political landscape in Europe is also evolving, with increasing support for both far-left and far-right movements that challenge the traditional establishment. These groups often advocate for rethinking European alliances, prioritizing national interests, and reassessing relations with Russia. Political changes in key nations, such as Italy and France, could further shift Europe’s policy direction, especially regarding defense and trade relations.

Europe stands at a crossroads, facing geopolitical, economic, and technological challenges that will shape its future. The continent’s ability to navigate these shifts depends on its economic resilience, political unity, and strategic alliances. As debates over defense spending, trade policies, and economic reforms continue, European nations must find a balanced approach that preserves stability while adapting to global changes. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether Europe can maintain its influence on the world stage or if it will become increasingly dependent on external forces.